Thursday, October 17, 2019

Out of control

Cooperative banks should be converted into small finance banks and brought under the supervision of the RBI


Even as the flow of credit to the economy is being eased, the pipeline is springing unexpected but not surprising leaks. The Rs 6500-crore gap in the books of Punjab and Maharashtra Cooperative Bank has overshadowed recent moves to nurse public sector banks to become fit to lend. The attraction of fewer strong institutions to meet the demands of a growing economy will be nullified if investors panic.  The latest cooperative bank to be in trouble created fictitious accounts to give nearly 73% of its lending surplus to a single borrower. Regulations are as good as their implementation. What the implosion underlines is that collusion between cunning customers and corrupt officials is not specific to any category. Broker Ketan Parekh triggered the collapse of the Madhavpura Mercantile Cooperative Bank and the new-age Global Trust Bank, later merged with Oriental Bank of Commerce, by using his access to their treasuries to manipulate stocks.  Punjab National Bank’s board was not aware of the misuse of letters of undertaking by Nirav Modi for overseas transfers from a single branch in Mumbai.  PMC Bank kept quiet despite HDIL not servicing the loans for many years. Auditors of these banks were either careless or collaborators. That these small but systemically important outfits have escaped from being taken over by the government even half a century after nationalization speaks of the powers that have come to control them. The Reserve Bank of India governor has said discussions are on with the Central government to reform the sector. The stage for cosmetic tinkering is over.

The cooperative movement started in the early 1950s, when banks were controlled by large industrial groups. The principle of each member being a stakeholder and a potential borrower was to ensure prudent practices and disciplined repayment. The 0.5% to 1% point higher interest offered by this category compared with government-owned banks, while not unusual in a competitive era after freeing of rates, should have resulted in a scrutiny of their practices. Excluding cooperative banks from exchanging high-value currency notes in November-December 2016 provides hints of the monetary authority’s unease. The PMC management admitted to siphoning of funds by the HDIL group after the board and auditor had approved the annual report and expressed satisfaction with the financial strength. Clearly, the dual-regulatory regime is not working. The RBI supervises their banking function. It does not have the power to constitute, supersede or liquidate the boards or remove directors. Registration, management and audit are by the registrar of cooperative societies.  A committee appointed by the central bank in 2015 had recommended converting multi-state urban cooperative banks with Rs 20000 crore of business into scheduled commercial banks. Even the very few that qualified did not show any enthusiasm. The recently issued norms for on-tap licensing of small finance banks should be modified to envelope these shaky edifices.  In the meantime, these entities should be barred from taking exposure to the corporate sector and instead limited to financing consumer goods, automobiles and gold. Treasury operations should be restricted to inter-bank transactions.  

A rapid crisis action team needs to be deployed to fire-fight a run on banks.  Clamp-down on withdrawals, though necessary to gauge the damage to the balance sheet, can prove counter-productive. Loss of confidence can set off a chain reaction of flight of deposits, undermining the foundation of even stable banks. The first step even before investigation starts into the causes and extend of rot is to ensure liquidity. A centralized contingency fund, with each bank contributing a percentage of its liabilities by subscribing to RBI's lending-rate-linked bonds issued by the task force, can provide support to troubled lenders. They can draw from the pool to return at least the principal if not the accumulated interest of worried savers. It will eliminate an important source of irritant: right now only up to Rs 1 lakh is insured and guaranteed by the deposit-taker. It is likely that housing societies, trusts and other non-profit organizations will be examining safer options. Most will opt for nationalized banks. Mutual funds should woo these risk-averse investors to money market schemes that invest in government securities. Redemption is assured. The entire subscription is available along with modest gains. The tax outgo, too, compares favorably with bank fixed deposits: as per the tax slab up to 36 months. The rate lowers to 20% with indexation benefit beyond that. There is no TDS applicable, unlike on bank fixed deposits if interest income crosses Rs 40000 in the year. Instead of trying to patch up the leakage after each eruption, the RBI’s focus should be on how to replace the pipeline to avoid any disruptions in future.

-Mohan Sule


Monday, October 7, 2019

Sting in the tail



Get set for migration of established companies with new business ideas to the low-tax regime for start-ups

The equity market finally got the trigger it was waiting for in the unexpected deep rate cut to 22% from 30% in the base corporate tax and scrapping of the surcharge on long-term capital gains for the super rich, capping nearly a month-and-a-half of monetary and fiscal stimulus in driblets. The Nifty gained 7.7% in two days, its best performance till date. If previous high-decibel actions including the recall of high-value notes in November 2016 and implementation of the universal goods and service tax from July 2017 and real estate regulations from May 2016 did not produce such a big impact, it was because their outcome was never meant to be visible in the short term. Their intention was to change entrenched habits to effect a transformation. The benefit of the latest fiscal reform to level the field with other competitive economies could be captured just like when the Reserve Bank of India slashed the lending rate to a nine-year low and kept provisioning at 5.5% of the balance sheet, instead of the earlier 6.8%,  to hand out to the treasury Rs 1.76 lakh crore of surplus. The market’s relief following the government deciding to front-load Rs 70000 crore into public sector banks was much more noticeable than the reaction to easing NBFCs’ access to liquidity, opening coal mining and contract manufacturing to 100% foreign direct investment and relaxing local sourcing norms for single-brand retail to an average of five years instead of every year.


The spurt in stock prices factored in higher earnings growth. If so, mid and small caps, too, should have bounced back when the eligibility for 25% corporate tax was hiked to include those with turnover of Rs 400 crore from Rs 250 crore in July, covering over 99% of all companies. Yet, the relaxation did not lift the market mood as many of the intended beneficiaries had opted for exemptions or the lower minimum alternate tax, now brought down to 15%, from 18.5%, of book profit plus surcharge and cess. Several were grappling with the execution of GST. A few would be disclosing more taxable income to avail of the input tax credit. That the latest tax bonanza is applicable across the board is a welcome realization that concessions should encourage risk-taking. Limiting them to size and nature of business distorts the marketplace. Booming orders from original equipment manufacturers can do more to encourage formalization of the unorganized support system relied on for outsourcing than preferential treatment. The indirect tax regime is already transiting to two-three slabs. Large, mid and small caps have gained in tandem, based on the premise that the savings in tax outgo will be used to expand capacity and product portfolio, diversify into new markets, revive consumption, clear debt, increase dividends or issue bonus. Even in the crowd, companies with no or negligible leverage populating certain sectors got more attention. Banks turned into favorites in the belief they would have more cash to lend and their borrowers would be in a better position to service their loans.

 Worries about fiscal deficit ballooning on tax revenues declining Rs 1.45 lakh crore without a rollback in government expenditure took a back seat because of the central bank’s bumper dividend and consolidation and capital infusion expected to spur a PSB turnaround. Higher payouts will improve the dividend distribution tax mop-up. The reluctance to reduce GST from 28% on automobiles sends a message that the sector’s woes stem from structural issues. The thrust on housing for all and infrastructure does merit a lenient view of cement. If the sector failed to get any sympathy it speaks of the doubts of pass-through of any benefit due to the tendency of the players to flock together. The stunningly low 15% tax rate on new companies setting up manufacturing between 1 October 2019 and 31 March 2023 is the sting in the tail. In the giddy euphoria of imagining an exodus of foreign investors from China to India, what has failed to get traction is the possibility of legacy companies taking advantage of the eight percentage point arbitrage in the tax rate to stay ahead.  When the cap on foreign direct investment limit was removed in many non-core industries, MNCs saw more drawbacks in compliance than upsides of raising capital from the Indian market to stay listed.  Those that were hobbled by the high price thrown up by the reverse book-building process to go private shied from new launches. Some set up new units to make value-added products. If Indian promoters turn copy cats, the shareholders hoping for bumper wealth creation going ahead will be disappointed. After enjoying a short-lived spike in valuations, investors will face a choice of a stagnant future or starting afresh.  

-Mohan Sule