A piecemeal vision

India needs a Marshall Plan to pull it out of the present slump and put it back on the fast-growth track

By Mohan Sule

Perhaps in a first, a prime ministerial candidate has unveiled his personal vision for the country. This is a marked departure from the practice of political parties releasing manifestos on the eve of elections. This is because the prime minister is not directly elected. He is supposed to toe the party line. For instance, waiver of farm loans, guaranteed employment to rural folks and food security, the three major policies for which the UPA I and II governments will be remembered, were sourced from the National Advisory Council headed by Sonia Gandhi. Not surprisingly, these five-year plans are please-all documents. Banishing poverty and controlling prices continue to remain the central objectives. The roadmap to achieve these goals, however, is rarely spelt out. Unfortunately, there is no tradition for the ruling party to present an audit of the promises fulfilled. Nor do the voters demand a report card. With the increasing trend of fractured mandates, expecting the dominant partner to implement its promises is unrealistic. A common minimum program is no guarantee of harmonious relationship between the various components forming the government. The UPA I government had to dismantle the ministry of divestment to appease Left party supporters, who nonetheless left the coalition over the civilian nuclear deal with the US. Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee walked out of the UPA II composition late 2012 over fuel price hike.

That a leading contender to head the next government spells out his projection for the country could be a pointer that India is at a turning point. Just like the US presidential election, where the candidate has the freedom to walk the road that is not in conformity with the party that selects him, the Indian electorate has to make a choice not based on the charter of the political parties but on the personalities leading their parties. The Congress has shied from naming its candidate for the top post and is yet to reveal its agenda for future. It is unlikely that the bosses of regional parties will make ‘I have a dream’ sort of speeches despite harboring secret ambition of becoming prime minister of a rag-tag government in case neither the Congress or the BJP is in a position to enlist support because no one is sure who will be lucky enough to answer the call. The country will have to wait to see what more freebies they can think of. This leaves with just Narendra Modi’s idea of India. The most remarkable takeout is the absence of any mention of subsidies, particularly in the present toxic environment of political parties vying for the popularity sweepstakes by promising cut in power tariffs. Instead, enabling farm output data in real time to balance between demand and supply seems to be his answer to keep foodgrain prices in check. The problem is not of adequate production but last-mile connectivity with the consumers. This calls for warehousing, good roads and decongested ports and competitive pan-India telecom services.

Another contradiction is the twin thrust on agriculture and urbanization. Boosting produce is indeed necessary due to the increasing purchasing power of the population, particularly in rural areas covered by the minimum wages scheme of the UPA II government. At the same time, the share of agriculture diminishes in the gross domestic product as the country makes the transition to a developed economy. How Modi is going to balance the needs of modern cities with those of an agrarian economy is not clear. Whizzing away in bullet trains is an exciting prospect and underscores the importance of transportation as a fuel of growth. The chief minister must be surely aware that one of the factors affecting India’s economy is availability of land. Environmental clearances have stalled ambitious projects to build new cities such as Lavasa in Maharashtra. Return on investment in infrastructure projects remains a thorny issue. On his next visit to Mumbai, he can find the reasons for the delay in implementing the Worli-Bandra sea link and the monorail and metro network and the scrapping of the second Churchgate-Virar railway corridor. Instead of piecemeal focus on components of infrastructure, what is needed is a Marshall Plan, which helped to rebuild Europe post World War II. The comprehensive package for a new India should include planned development, universal healthcare and quality education. All this boils down to attracting capital. The challenge, therefore, is to make India an important port of call by allowing inflow and outflow of financial and human capital without fiscal barriers. For this stable and transparent policies and maintaining the sanctity of the market with swift punishment to those who circumvent the system would be important steps to instill confidence in invest