Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Trust deficit


Small investors are on their own in a promoter-manager power tussle, with no help from institutional investors

By Mohan Sule

At first glance, the flare-ups at Tata Sons and Infosys look similar: larger-than-life retired honchos expressing frustration at the direction of their companies, clashes spilling out from the boardroom and hand-wringing over existential trauma. Tata Steel and Tata Motors are facing the twin blows of huge debt accumulated for acquisitions and the subsequent worldwide slowdown. The business model of Infosys is being questioned due to the increasing commoditization of the space. Yet, the market looked at both the crises differently. The valuations of the Tata group eroded while the drama was being played out in public glare. Infosys shareholders, on the other hand, looked more annoyed than angry at the distraction at a time when the focus should have been on bagging high-margin orders from the recovering US and EU markets. The stock remained stable and even gained in the midst of the storm in the tea cup. The inference is that the steps being taken by the new boss at Bombay House to shed fat were viewed appropriate and his sacking considered unfortunate. So also the compensation and severance packages of the top helmsmen at the Bengaluru-based back-office supporter were not bothering ordinary investors to the extent they were to the promoters. Despite the return of calm, the lessons learnt from the two episodes should not be brushed aside. The first area of concern is succession planning. Recent events challenge and at the same time confirm conventional wisdom about companies run by families and those with dispersed shareholding managed by professionals.

The lateral induction of Cyrus Mistry into the Tata group was welcomed by the market, comfortable with his family’s large shareholding. The collective stepping down of the founders of Infosys in favor of competent outsiders, too, got thumbs up as the act was considered the pinnacle of the good governance pyramid. The situation has reversed now, with the market favorably inclined at the hotels-to-coffee group’s decision to promote an insider, while looking with unease at the running of the IT bellwether, wondering whether ordinary investors were being short-changed by the newcomers. What has capped the stretching of the tussle is the improving economic situation. The second lesson, therefore, is the environment determines the success of any generational shift. During times of difficulties, the successors appear to be doing nothing right. Due to their integration with the global markets, the conglomerate and the tech leader have passed through tiring times. The new CEOs inherited the problems rather than creating them. Hence, their strategies differed. If, in one case, fault was found with the re-examination of the capital deployed, in another it was the allocation of capital that drew ire. Low returns can weigh on the bottom line of a manufacturer, while retaining talent is important for a services provider to maintain the margins.

This brings to the third draw-down. Should the opinions of predecessors given weight? JRD Tata died a couple of years after the succession of the anointed heir, who subsequently eased out the ageing heads of group companies, by setting out a retirement policy, without much resistance. Despite Infosys founders requesting the stock exchanges to re-classify them as non-promoters, the board preferred to cash on their goodwill. Against this background, Ratan Tata’s coup appears interference, while the Infosys’s board’s irritation with NRN Murthy’s grouse puzzling. If promoter-managers after a long stint continue to remain suspicious of the motives of their successors, they should remain on the board and guide the incoming management. The Tata group is so unwieldy that the best service to the investors will be its breakup. Infosys, too, needs a break from the past by entering new areas. This leads to the final observation. Small investors are left to fend for themselves while the power play between past and current shareholder-managers destroys wealth. Neither domestic nor foreign big-ticket shareholders seem to have the ability or the capability to notice (in the case of the Tata group) or resolve (in the case of Infosys) the contentious issues before there is a blow-out. The traditional theory of following institutional investors stands exposed as this class is focused on short-term gains without bothering about systemic issues such as promotion policy. It will be some time for investors to decide if Tata’s and Murthy’s interventions were beneficial for their companies. Both may have won the battle by focusing on corporate governance issues but have lost the war of perception by believing in their indispensability and distrusting their successors.


Thursday, February 16, 2017

Fault lines


The continuing budget allocations to several thrust areas is a testimony to the governance deficit of the previous regimes

By Mohan Sule

The Union Budget 2017 stood on the tripod of growth with financial inclusion and fiscal discipline.  As expected, the exercise was distilled to a simple act of presenting the expenditure and revenue projections for the next fiscal. What the budget did was to inject a massive fiscal stimulus to boost rural employment, infrastructure and low-cost housing. Urban spending got a booster dose by the halving of the personal tax rate for the lowest tax slab. Peak corporate tax on micro, small and medium enterprises, with a turnover of less than Rs 50 crore and unable to bring down their tax liability by availing of various exemptions that big companies do, has been cut by 5%. MAT set-off can be availed for 15 years. The combo of a lower interest rate regime due to ample liquidity with banks, scaling back of government borrowing (down by nearly Rs 75 lakh crore this fiscal), and push to infrastructure and rural consumption was a heady mix for the market despite the fiscal deficit pegged at 3.2% of GDP in the current financial year, down from the projected 3.5%, with the 3% target pushed to the next financial year. Resources for expenditure will probably come from the higher GST of 18% on many items currently enjoying lower sales tax and growth in direct taxes on a wider base. The post-budget euphoria was reminiscent of the previous booms, fueled by the introduction of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, 2005, when consumption stocks bubbled, from early 2006 till mid 2009, before feeling the heat from the global liquidity crisis of September 2008. The market started gathering momentum early 2014 on hints of change of government to March 2015, appreciating nearly 7.000 points, when two years of drought reversed the trend.

The highest-ever allocation of Rs 48000 crore since the inception of MGNREGA is ironic considering  Prime Minister Narendra Modi had specifically singled out the scheme’s existence to the failure of the UPA’s decade-old rule. Yet hiking the outlay means two things. One, demonetization has badly hurt the village folks in the absence of adequate penetration of banks, roads and electricity. Second, it is an admission of the failure so far to reduce the dependence of a majority of population on agriculture income that swings to the vagaries of monsoon. Unless a sunset clause is set for phasing out the scheme, there will be no compulsion to measure the outcome. Earlier, leakages were blamed for cash not reaching the beneficiaries, an inadvertent acknowledgement that the program basically comprises handouts disguised in a market-oriented nomenclature. Now with Aadhar and direct bank transfer facility on stream, auditing the progress of the irrigation projects on which the funds are utilized is possible. Hopefully, the cut in the peak rate to 25% for those with turnover with less than Rs 50 crore should entice more players from the informal sector to join the mainstream and broaden the tax base. Another essential ingredient to complement moderate levies is a re-examination of the labour laws so as to impart flexibility in maintaining payrolls in tune with external conditions.     


 The Rs 10000 crore earmarked to re-capitalize PSU banks can be at best viewed as a symbolic gesture in view of the actual requirement, with some estimates putting it at nearly Rs 1 lakh crore. There are three charitable explanations for the finance minister’s tight-fist. One, and obvious, is the paucity of funds. Second might be that a road map is being prepared to sell these lenders burdened with rotten assets. Third is that there is a belief among the policy makers that the growth that will be fueled by lighter rates will be the recipe to return to health. None of these looks feasible in the short term. Hopefully, one of the reforms of the many that the budget has hinted will see the creation of bad banks to hold varying degrees of non-performing assets that will in one sweep cleanse the banking system.  No amount of coaxing will de-clog the credit pipeline as long as banks remain risk-averse. Another puzzle is the sadistic ritual of dangling a PSU divestment target to the market. It is nearly Rs 30000 crore more than the collection, which is off the mark, in the current fiscal so far. The confidence apparently stems from the fact that, instead of OFS, the approach will be through the ETF route. In its bid to maintain discipline, the recent budget exercise has exposed historical fault lines of lopsided development and governance deficit. There seems to be a realization that transforming policies should be kept outside the budget purview. Hike in FDI in insurance, amendments to land acquisition, and GST were debated thoroughly and conclusions arrived through consensus, imparting a stamp of legitimacy to the process.