When 2020
appeared lonely as 1961, reimagining 1984, deviating from 1995, reliving 1999
and full of hope of 1969
28 December 2020
Here comes the sun, do, dun, do, do/Here comes the sun, and I say/ It's
all right
These lyrics
by the iconic music band Beatles celebrated the imminent arrival of spring
after months of a cold winter. As the sun sets on 2020, it does seem like 1969,
when the resistance against rules broke free. After nine months of havoc
wrought by a deadly pandemic, release from confinement looks possible in the
New Year. History has a strange way to mutate over slices of periods. The
Berlin Wall is a prominent example of physical demarcation to mark geographical
boundaries. Countries transformed into clones of East Germany as they locked
down their population in April, turning into ghettos after being flat, following
the birth in 1995 of the World Trade Organization to demolish tariff barriers
to ease inter-nation trade flows. If the restriction on free movement in 1961
was to insulate from the influences of fascism, the clampdown in the passing
year was to contain the covid-19 outbreak. It took 27 years before the man-made
edifice, executing social distancing in its worst form, was brought down. The
battle to vanquish coronavirus has been shorter. The relief at the unification
of people, who habituated the cyber world to bridge the separation in the real
world, has been no less, with equity indices scaling new highs. The euphoric reception
accorded to tech companies, which helped to remain connected, is an energetic replica
of the 1999 dot-com boom.
The lapping
of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google’s parent Alphabet is reminiscent
of the craze for Intel, Microsoft, Oracle and Cisco Systems two decades ago.
The similarity between the IPOs of a room-rental aggregator and a cloud-storage
provider now with internet properties then, such as Priceline.com, which bought
airline tickets and sold them at prices passengers were willing to pay, extends
not only to the 80%-100% pop over the offer price but also to their
billion-dollar market cap on listing. If the tradition of romancing loss-making
debutantes due to their outlook continues, so do rescue acts of failing
institutions. Brining back from the brink two private lenders evoked memories
of 2002, when the value of UTI’s underlying assets was lower than not only of
its declared NAV but also of face value. The state-owned mutual
fund-cum-financial institution was split into two entities to house
rotten and performing assets. If social media seemed like a savior during the
long spells of isolation, the dependence on these platforms thrust into reckoning
the dangerous downsides. Their dominance and tracking of every move of the user
seemed like reliving the chilling dystopian society conjured by George Orwell.
The vivid portrait of life under surveillance in 1984 is coming alive 36 years
later. Echoes of how data could be misused in the quest for information
dominance reverberated in the recently concluded US president polls. The scary control of a few American
corporations on words capturing our thoughts, images of our best faces, snappy
chats and snarky tweets have snowballed into a consensus that it is time for a
break. The last time such a pervasive presence was chipped to size was,
ironically, in 1984, when AT&T, a huge conglomerate that, once again in a
bit of irony, controlled communications.
In India, another
hulk was expanding its overarching influence, offering access to the internet,
facilitating voice and data downloads, generating entertainment, enabling online-
shopping and dotting outlets to pump fuel. RIL’s divestment of 25% stake in the
digital arm to foreign investors to raise over Rs 1 lakh crore in less than two
months and the Future Group’s subsequent clash with investor Amazon over sale
of the retail business had shades of EM Forster’s 1924 classic, A Passage to
India, depicting the tensions arising from the West’s fascination with a
mysterious land set against the 1920 independence movement. Even as the
Atmanirbhar Bharat packages and monetary support was infusing Rs 30 lakh crore
to encourage Make in India, the US’ two fiscal
stimuli of US$4.5 trillion and the near-zero interest rates were sending stocks
soaring as green shoots of recovery sprouted on a landscape that appeared as
desolate as Chernobyl after the 1986 nuclear meltdown. A resurgence of
infections and the discovery of a new variant during the last lap of the old
year did create doubts about surmounting the challenge like the skepticism greeting
the idea of a manned mission in space. With the availability of over 90%
efficient vaccines, the obstacles seem as conquerable as in 1969, when the images of Neil
Armstrong gingerly sidestepping the craters on the moon reaffirmed faith in
future.
-Mohan Sule
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