Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Divergence to convergence


Law makers and regulators are getting on the same page for ease of doing business without bothering about the bill

 21 September 2020

Ever since the US Federal Reserve shifted its gaze last month from inflation-targeting to job-creation, the role of policy makers and market monitors has come into focus. Before the pandemic, there was no confusion on what was expected of governments and various regulators. Elected representatives making laws that turned their nations into welfare states or were so restrictive so to stifle entrepreneurship had to face the backlash of higher purchasing spends and low growth. The problem is that the terms of most democratic governments range from four to five years. The scope to inflict damage due to recklessness or timidity is extensive, requiring painful adjustments by the next regime. Regulators balanced populism and conservatism by calibrating policies that tightened or eased rules. Central banks tinkered with the flow and cost of money to discourage exuberance or encourage consumption, while keeping food and non-food output affordable. Efforts of the securities monitors were to create a level-playing field for issuers and investors. Competition regulators nipped predatory pricing and unfair sales practices to ensure users had a choice. With such clear-cut spaces to operate, there should be no recession, runaway retail prices and speculative bets. Each segment should have a handful of operators enjoying similar share of the market. Insider trading, stock-rigging and accounts fudging should be the rarest of rare cases. Unfortunately, textbook rules do not account for changes in technology and tastes. The IMF and World Bank prescription of belt-tightening for government excesses has become outdated. Now the template is more liquidity to boost consumption.

The pandemic has blurred the boundaries between the functions of legislators and gatekeepers. Ideally, they are supposed to work at cross-purpose without paralyzing the system. If the government adopted loose fiscal habits of cash infusion, soft taxes and high expenditure to support the distressed economy, the monetary authority was expected to make funds dearer to nip any bubbles in the making. Right now, both the arms are working in tandem to make available low-cost loans. In fact, the Fed has strayed from its mandate to boldly trespass into a domain that is not in its charter. It will keep the tap of cheap credit turned on for as long as it takes to achieve saturation employment and retail demand to outstrip supply by 2%. The Reserve Bank of India is in no mood to bump up the real negative interest rates for fear of stalling economic recovery. After the Rs 50000-crore targeted refinancing in May, NBFCs were offered another Rs10000 crore in August. Servicing of term loans was suspended for six months, an action best suited for politicians. Easing of asset classification was permitted to offset provisioning for covid-19 defaults. A one-time restructuring of loans outstanding before the medical emergency is set to be followed by sector-specific prescriptions.  Priority sector lending norms have been tweaked to include education and social infrastructure. Flow to credit-starved districts will earn incentives.

 

The capital market watchdog turned endearing from brusque. Preferential issues at higher of the volume-weighted average price over 12 weeks or two weeks cleared the way for cash-starved Corporate India to tap into the US and India stimulus. Scaling down the minimum market cap of public holding in a rights issue to Rs 100 crore from Rs 250 crore, threshold for subscription to 75% from 90%  and prior listing to 18 months from three years have provided flexibility to promoters to increase their exposure to support their companies. Doing away filing of draft offer for rights issues up to Rs 25 crore is to help small enterprises. The roll-back of the gap between buybacks to six months from one year opens the exit route for the shareholders.  Side-pocketing of stressed assets can be done the moment a proposal for debt recast is received by the fund house, thereby stemming the erosion of NAVs and redemption pressure. The clampdown on multi-cap funds and end-of-the-day margin in the cash segment plugs another loophole for manipulation. Instead of lazy investing of concentrating on large caps, fund managers need to take exposure evenly across different categories of stocks or allow investor migration. Brokers can no longer misuse shares pledged for rampant intra-day trading as each transaction has to be accompanied by adequate backup. What needs to be seen is who is going to pick the tab for the ballooning bad loans and loss of price discovery coming as accompaniments in the feel-good feast.

 

-Mohan Sule 

 


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